This week’s list for
the WEIS End Zone Show football picks segment is one that even Nolen Sanford
can love. That is, the wheat and the chaff of the Southeastern Conference
are, generally, beginning to delineate themselves quite clearly. Now this
prognostication game is largely a matter of separating teams into the
appropriate piles for future reference.
Alabama
and LSU? Wheat. Auburn and Ole Miss? Chaff. Just about the
only teams left blowing in the breeze, at this point, are
South Carolina and
Georgia. And we’ll find out this weekend
whether or not either of them is capable of delivering a fully baked loaf of
bread.
Speaking of
half-baked, my friend Nolen apparently spent a little too much time last
week picking at something other than his SEC schedule. He’s hovering at
around .500 (actually, he’s at .667, but I’m rounding down), while Shannon
Fagan, one uncommonly keen 6th grader and I are well on our way to laying
claim to the label that all Sunday morning football fools in the South
strive for … that of “SEC Football Prognosticator Extraordinaire”.
For most of us on the
WEIS End Zone Show, this week looks to be another cake walk. Please read
with great interest my sure-fire predictions and marvel afterwards as I move
eight wins closer to claiming the 2011 season title.
No. 14 Arkansas
at No. 3 Alabama
The No. 2-ranked Crimson Tide has not yet faced a team as aggressive and
explosive as this Arkansas offense.
Unfortunately for the Hogs, the “junior high” quality of Alabama’s schedule also means Nick Saban
hasn’t turned past page one of his defensive playbook. I can just about
guarantee that by the time the Razorbacks’ QB takes his final snap, Bama
defenders will have attacked him from every angle except a straight-down
repel off the upper deck. (Tyler Wilson, meet the kitchen sink.) This one
may go back-and-forth for three quarters, but the crowd noise and Bama’s
swarming “D” will create the mistakes that will prove the difference. (Side
bet: Look for Alabama
to come out throwing – yes, throwing – against an
Arkansas
defense that gave up 373 yards to
Troy
last week.) Final: 27-17, Alabama
Louisiana
Tech at Mississippi State
The Bulldog offense was just plain horrible last week against what is,
admittedly, an incredibly stingy LSU defense. Running back Vick Ballard had
only 38 yards on the ground and QB Chris Relf couldn’t manage triple digits
throwing the ball. Look for MSU’s offense to perform a little better and
find a way to win a close one against Louisiana Tech – a school that I know
almost nothing about except that former Steelers great Terry Bradshaw is an
alumnus. Final: 28-20,
Mississippi
State
Florida Atlantic at Auburn
The good news is that Auburn’s offense is
zooming right along under the tutelage of Gus Malzahn. The bad news is that
Malzahn isn’t coaching the defense, too. As a result, the Tigers are
giving up enough yards per game to traverse the Empire State Building from one end
to the other, and then some (543 yards per game, to be precise). Luckily,
there are a couple of bright spots for
Auburn
this week. First, the Auburn eagle mascot,
Spirit, is recovering nicely after crashing into the upper deck at
Jordan-Hare Stadium a couple weeks ago. Second, despite being coached by
Bear Bryant disciple Howard Schnellenberger, Florida Atlantic is one of the
worst teams in college football.
Final: 45-17, Auburn
No. 2 LSU at No. 16 West Virginia
Coach Les Miles’s offense doesn’t have terrific numbers after three games,
but the Bayou Bengals are undefeated and there’s little chance that will
change this weekend. The running game is solid, which helps QB Jarrett Lee
get a little more comfortable every week; and the Tiger defense is the
biggest bully in whatever neighborhood it happens to be in. The key to this
game, I think, lies in the trenches. On both sides of the ball, LSU is
bigger, stronger and faster than the Mountaineers. Lee may have to step up
for the Tigers and lead at some point this season (Nov. 5 in Tuscaloosa
comes to mind) but his overbearing teammates will easily push West Virginia
out of the way Saturday night. Final: 31-13, LSU
Vanderbilt at No. 12 South Carolina
South Carolina’s
hot-and-cold offensive attack faces another tough test against a Commodores
defense that held Ole Miss to less than 100 yards rushing last week. Marcus
Lattimore will have to find a way to duplicate last week’s rushing
performance (246 yards, three touchdowns). He’ll probably get plenty of
chances, too, since Steve Spurrier doesn’t have enough confidence in his
quarterbacks to throw the ball unless it’s third-and-a-bus-ride. Vandy is much improved under new coach James Franklin … but they’re
still just Vandy, right? I don’t
know. This is the toughest game of the week to predict, especially
considering that the Commodores are the No. 10 defense in the nation right
now. Heck, this game is for the lead in the SEC East Division! I’ll stick
with the home team, in a close one.
Final: 23-19, South Carolina
No. 15 Florida
at Kentucky
“We didn’t block well but we made up for it not tackling well,” head coach
John McKay deadpanned 35 years ago after yet another lopsided loss by his
bumbling Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They same could have been said of the
Kentucky Wildcats after last week’s loss – they averaged 1.1
yards per rush and gave up nearly 200 yards on the ground to a substandard
Louisville
team. The Kentucky passing attack isn’t
quite as atrocious, but the outcome of this one is a foregone conclusion
unless the Florida team bus breaks
down on the way to Commonwealth Stadium. Will Muschamp’s team keeps getting better every single week. Quarterback John Brantley is
getting his head around Charlie Weis’s pro-style offense and it showed last
week against Tennessee
(213 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions). The Gator defense is
fine-tuning its delivery, as well. What they are going to do to Joker
Phillips’ so-called “offense” on Saturday ought to be laugh-out-loud funny.
Final: 38-10,
Florida
Georgia
at Mississippi
If the 2011 season contains a race to the bottom of the SEC coaching pool,
Mark Richt and Houston Nutt both have belly-flopped into the deep end, and
are neck-and-neck and sinking fast. Saturday’s loser will be the first to officially hit the
floor. I still believe Richt is simply going through the motions and
checking his mailbox daily for a registered envelope from the UGA
director of athletics. And who the heck knows exactly what's going on at Ole Miss? If I’m right
this game, the Rebels will probably end up being underdogs in the rest of their games
this season, including at home against Louisiana Tech on Nov. 12. After the
vow I made in last week’s
column I realize I’m picking against my own best interests here. But
from what I’ve seen so far this season,
Georgia won’t get past any of its next three opponents
(Mississippi State,
Tennessee and Vanderbilt).
Final: 24-13, Georgia
Eastern Illinois at Jacksonville State
The Gamecocks could only manage a 14-14 halftime score in last week’s outing
against a fledging Georgia State team, until Centre native Coty
Blanchard scored two second-half touchdowns to seal the win and a 2-1
record. Ohio Valley Conference play begins Saturday at Burgess-Snow Field
and Eastern Illinois, coached by a man named Bob Spoo – that’s
S-P-O-O – at least looks like the team to get off on the right foot against.
The Panthers (1-2) throw the ball well but can’t seem to stop the run. That
defensive disinclination may play directly into JSU’s hands, as they seem
more comfortable focusing on the ground game since Blanchard took over at quarterback.
Final: 27-24, Jacksonville State
Tennessee
(Open)
Did you see the pants Tennessee coach Derek
Dooley was wearing last week in the Swamp? Geez. Somewhere in the Midwest, a county fair clown is walking around in his
underwear. The Volunteers gets a much-needed vacation this week, and I can
only imagine that they’ll use part of that free time to transport their game
pants to the team tailor to have multiple Gator bite marks in the rear
areas patched over. It was truly a horrible day for the Road Crew Orange
Crew: hotshot QB Tyler Bray threw a pair of interceptions, special teams
gave up a blocked punt, and the rushing game had nine fewer yards when the
game was over than they did before the coin toss. (Seriously.) Don’t buy too many pairs
of those day-glow orange pants, coach Dooley. If this keeps up, you’ll never
make it to the bottom of your dresser drawer.
Next week: University of Buffalo